Hello Rocketeer’s
I hope you are doing fine.
So much is happening in the world. I started writing and I got sucked in for hours. My goal was to write down everything in my mind. I dropped line after line for hours, just to discover that the article became like the waiting line in front of Apple stores on launch day.
So, I had to decide.
Shower you with all the info, or put the info into two neat packages that are easier to consume. I’ll go with the latter.
As always, I want to cover what’s going on, and how it impacts the markets.
In the second post, I will review the book The Great Narrative, written by Klaus Schwab.
Why?
There are plenty of rumors about globalists and so on. So, I thought, let’s read it and get your opinion.
Spoiler alert.
If this becomes reality, it will turn the world as we know it inside out.
But first, back to today.
Part 1:
It’s Oktoberfest time
People are having fun, get drunk and some get laid. Other lucky ones win a fluffy teddy bear by spinning the wheel of fortune.
Today’s time fell like a wheel of the future. Or is it more like Russian roulette? Depending on where the wheel stops, fewer and fewer fields make you happy. Here are some random picks.
Sabotage of Nordstream pipelines and the allegedly leading investigator Eric Ollsen is already death - through a bee sting
North Korea is testing missiles over Japan
An explosion on the 12-mile-long Crimea bridge kills three people, and Russia is answering with missiles on Kiew.
That’s the opposite of de-escalation.
Politics is like a blacksmith - stoking the fire
Media and politicians have to play dumb in order not to look even dumber.
Are they dumb? I don’t think so. They are smart.
From my perspective, it’s all about conditioning. To blur the lines between right and wrong.
Questions arise
What is this all about?
Who is actually still our friend?
Who wants an escalation (of the Russia-Ukraine war) and for what purpose?
Stakeholders with common sense obviously don’t play a role anymore.
Chaos is the chosen march direction right now.
Will there be more?
Probably?
This is certain.
Chaos fuels fears
Fear dig’s deeper and deeper into your brain, heart, and soul.
Yet, people smile, avoid the topic and still think about it all the time.
Most people follow a certain thought pattern. It goes something like this.
Because I can’t envision it, it won’t happen.
You know what? That’s pretty naïve.
If something can happen - it most likely will - no matter what you believe.
Facts are facts
When the tank is empty, your car stops. No matter how strong you believe.
Reality is like gravity, it always wins.
If you look back to the first bullet points, and what happened in the last weeks, few would have believed, this can happen.
What happens when they brake other tabus after Nordstream. What if they cut damage or cut the cross-Atlantic internet cables?
Unbelievable, right?
Let’s take a more in-depth look at the psyche and where it misguides us
Your imagination and thinking give you identity. You stick to it because it makes sense for you. You choose a certain group of thinking and category of thinking because it makes (your) life easier; it saves a bunch of brain energy. But it also comes with a hate list of topics.
Unfortunately, this approach is lowering your ability to think outside the box.
The current box is this.
The West against Russia.
And if something doesn’t fit into this worldview, people get nervous because life gets complicated, and you feel the urge to drop the hot potato. Instead of doing their research, people tend to lean toward “authorities” and thought leaders, again, to save energy.
Both sides tell the story differently.
But who is telling the truth?
Bear with me, I’m almost there.
Let’s switch perspectives
Working for a company also gives you an identity. A company is like a big tribe with a shared goal. “I am …” fill in the blanks. … an Apple guy. … a Walmart guy.
Identity works both ways. The moment you don’t agree with “your” group 100%, you have an internal conflict.
If we go back to the company example, we can see that some departments fight against each other because one might believe that a new feature for the new product is unnecessary.
All in all, a company knows how to organize thousands of people to build complex products like cars, smartphones, or software. And they stay focused.
Outside the company? Mainly silence – except rumors. And one day boom a new iPhone or a new car comes out. Some products are hits and sell like ice cream in summer. Others fail.
Tribalism is like religion
You either identify and believe, or you lose and don’t get the promotion.
For me, politics is like a big, organized cooperation.
Department A vs. department B.
Left vs. right.
Democrats vs. Republicans.
But what’s their big goal?
And who sets the goal?
Is it the destabilization of the western worldview/ -order by creating chaos?
Every good soldier knows
Disorientation is a tactical war tool. If we reduce what’s happening to only that, we can say “they” are pretty good at it, and we are already at war. Not just since the Russia-Ukraine conflict (which everyone knows didn’t start in 2022, but back in 2014).
The confusion of what logic is, the exaggerated and ineffective measures, the breach of liberty, and the massive restriction of public discussion about Corona are the language of war and escalation.
No one gives a fuck about freedom right now – at least that’s what they want you to believe.
Who is the beneficiary of all this chaos? One thing is clear. Not we – the people.
A cautious hypothesis
The Dollar is the reserve currency of the world, but its throne is shaking. Saudi Arabia is publicly considering accepting the Yuan instead of Dollars for its oil.
They even slapped Biden by cutting oil production by 2 million barrels per day.
This is not a high five for the winner, nor the reserve currency of the world.
To get out of this mess, one way for the US could be to destabilize the world faster than its reserve currency status in the world is declining. Ray Dalio writes about it in his book The changing world order. You should read it.
If you put countries in a historical deep debt hole before the official reserve currency of the world changes, you win historical and essential time.
But what if this isn’t the plan?
What if everything blows up?
What if WW-III is coming, and we get nuked? Everything would have to restart.
A great reset?
One man is waving a book, that’s talking about a new and better world. A lot of what is happening right now plays into the cards of this story.
In my next post, I will give you my opinion about Klaus Schwab - with his master plan – The Great Narrative.
And the Market?
One company stood out and went viral. Here is why. It used to be said that politics and any form of religion had no place in a company. What happened since then?
Politics has forgotten its primary task - to create a stable environment for people and companies. Instead, politicians and companies are getting further and further entangled in empty phrases and producing aha moments.
PayPal is the worst recent example company.
They changed their business terms to charge you $2,500 if you spread “misinformation” and give it to “them”. Just to say one day later that it was “a mistake”.
A company should produce a product for its customers, not enforce a certain idealism. And because this story went viral, I’m sure I’m not alone in this way of thinking. The stock plummeted and lost billions in one day. That’s the woke fee you pay as a company. Not a smart move.
This kind of companies should immediately get out of business. Most company leaders I’ve talked to behind closed doors raise their eyebrows and don’t support the woke movement.
But they hide behind the excuse that they “must” support it because they have bills to pay. Here lies the problem. As if this solves the problem. Most leaders of today have no backbone. They suppress their values and sell their soul because they are afraid of their thoughts and lack courage.
What is misinformation at all?
Particularly when you notice that what was presented to us two years ago by politicians and “fact-checkers” as the truth, now turns out to be nonsense. For example, the effectiveness of the so-called risk-free vaccine. And those who allegedly “spread misinformation” back then are quite right today. Way more right than the politicians or Klaus in his book Covid-19. Again. Diversity is a good thing. Especially when we are talking about the truth. Betting on one institution or party is a sure way to fail. I think it’s a test.
Can you see how bad this is for business?
So, a lot of what’s happening right now is impacting the markets and stocks of companies. It feels like everyone is going nuts – including the markets.
Therefore, I think we haven’t seen the bottom yet – by far.
Michael Burry, the guy who won the bet in 2008/09 said, that the bottom was reached in 2009 when 1.2% closed above the 200-day moving average. And in 2020 it was 2.8%. Right now, we are at roughly 13%. So, we have a lot of air to go south.
I wouldn’t buy any stock right now. Better invest in yourself.
Am I right? We will see.
- Michael
Disclaimer:
The information in this article is my personal opinion. It is not consulting, nor does it constitute investment recommendations.
I do my research carefully and follow my personal investment strategy.
The stock market is a complex building with its own rules. They are no rules set in stone, like the rules of physics.
Therefore, use the contents of this newsletter at your own risk. Investing in the stock market can always lead to a total loss of the capital invested.
Sources:
https://news.sky.com/story/kremlin-says-it-cant-rule-out-sabotage-after-mysterious-damage-to-russia-germany-gas-pipelines-prompts-warnings-12706208
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58963654
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/10/08/world/russia-ukraine-war-news
Stimulation package after stimulation package and inflation is still on full steam.
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/598257-saudi-arabia-considers-accepting-yuan-instead-of-dollar-for-oil/