A Challenging Fortnight: Personal Losses and Professional Gains
Reflecting on Recent Events and What’s Next for TheValueVantage.com
A warm hello to all new readers! I’m glad you are on board.
New here? I’m Michael and on a mission to make beating the stock market as easy for you as choosing your favorite ice cream. I write an algorithm that does exactly that.
How it all started. The journey so far.
Sometimes, life throws us into the deep end.
It's not about how we stay afloat,
but how we find our rhythm in the waves that follow again.
Life has a way of throwing curveballs, and the last two weeks have been a tough inning for me. I lost two people very close to my heart, one after the other. First, a dear colleague and friend died suddenly, which threw me completely off course. The next day, my mother, who had been battling cancer for almost two years, also passed away.
Even though we knew her time was near, the speed at which it happened was hard to accept. She almost made it, and that’s the part that stings the most. Her funeral was a beautiful one, attended by 200 people. I want to thank everyone who sent their wishes and prayers. It means the world to me.
Life, as relentless as it is, keeps moving forward, and so must we. We grieve, we reflect, and eventually, we start to find our footing again. This week, I want to update you on what I’ve been working on and outline the plans for the weeks ahead.
Progress
I’ve made an update on the return simulator on my website. It allows you to explore the range of returns generated by our algorithm over the past 26 years. I’m proud to say that we’ve consistently outperformed the market, sometimes by a smaller margin, but more often by a significant one.
Take a look at this chart to see how the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) has varied if you had followed for the past 26 years.
It ranges from 9.11%, with mean returns of 11.49%, to an impressive 17.8%, with mean returns of 21.66%. The variations you see are largely due to overall market conditions—elements beyond anyone’s control. For example, if you had entered the market right before a big down-turn. This underscores the role of luck and recurring patterns in the market.
For comparison, I’ve also included the returns of the S&P 500 Total Returns. You might notice slight discrepancies due to the timing of the 12-month cycles, especially if they land on a weekend, but the overall trend is what’s important here.
The overall CAGR of our algorithm stands at 13.31%, with mean returns at 16.96%. The math works, and that’s what matters most to me.
If we believe various sources, the average private retail investor earned only 2.1% per year from stock picking between 1999 and 2015. I also found some data from late 2020 that puts our performance further into perspective, and I’m pleased to say we’ve beaten those Mutual Funds, particularly in the long run. If you come across more recent data, please feel free to share it in the comments.
I encourage you to play around with the simulator to get a feel for potential returns.
Transparency is crucial to me, and I haven’t found another service that offers this level of insight. You deserve to see the full picture, not just marketing snapshots of recent past successes that look good on paper. The simulator allows you to evaluate how the strategy might perform if you were to start investing when you are ready, rather than relying on window dressing messages alone.
I will update the simulator for 2024 as well. Please bear with me since I have to update some code first. The current version should suffice for now, and rest assured, there’s more to come as we prepare to launch TheValueVantage.com.
While analyzing the data, I identified a potential pattern for the red-flag report, which aims to intelligently minimize losses and improve returns even further. However, developing and testing this pattern will take some time, so it won’t be available for the start.
The Plan
I plan to launch my service in October. There are a few reasons for this. First, and as you can imagine, there’s still a lot of work to be done. Second, and more importantly, my wife has been incredibly patient and supportive over the past few months. It’s time I give her the attention she deserves.
So, here’s the rough plan: There are multiple moving parts that need to be synchronized to ensure the code runs smoothly after the stock market closes and that you receive fresh research reports as quickly as possible. I’ll start by rolling out the 500k daily liquidity strategy. Before that, I’ll finalize the PDF report so you can easily digest the results, followed by some marketing material to get the word out.
After that, I’ll turn my attention to updating the simulator for 2024. The final big task will be implementing the $2 million and $4 million strategies. Because of this workload, I’ll be off the grid for the next four weeks, focusing solely on these tasks. During this time, there won’t be any new articles. Thereafter, I’ll focus my attention on the Red-Flag report.
What’s on My Mind
Life doesn’t always go as planned, and we have to adjust accordingly. My goal was to launch in September. The two-week “delay” in this project was well worth it, as it allowed me to spend precious time with my mom during her final days. We had meaningful conversations, and I’m grateful I had the chance to tell her everything I wanted to. I hope you all get the same opportunity with your loved ones.
Nuggets
A friend shared this quote with me that I found deeply comforting:
“People only die when we forget about them.”
It’s a simple truth. Take a moment today to remember those you’ve lost and cherish the good times you had together.
Thank you for your understanding and support. We’ll get through this together, and I’m excited about the future of TheValueVantage.com.
Hit that heart for your loved ones!
Michael
Recommend The Economy Rocket to your readers and friends
I share my stock investment story without sugarcoating – you get the good, the bad, and those tricky ego trips. I'm developing a service with a mix of smart code and proven investment strategies, making stock analysis a thing of the past if you wish. Why? Because life offers so much more beyond the confines of stock analysis.
Disclaimer:
The information in this article is my personal opinion. I’m not a certified investment professional. It is not consulting, nor does it constitute investment recommendations.
I do my research carefully and follow my personal investment strategy.
The stock market is a complex building with its own rules. There are no rules set in stone, like the rules of physics.
Therefore, use the contents of this newsletter at your own risk and do your own research as well. Investing in the stock market can lead to a total loss of the capital invested.
The news of your mothers’s death greatly saddened me. :( My heartfelt condolences.
I'm sorry for your loss! But you are right people only die when they are forgotten. Your loved ones are still beside you.
Take care Michael.